John McDonald

Professor of Economics (Personal chair)

BSc Lond, MSc S'ton, MA Essex, PhD Essex, FASSA

Room: 3.43 Law & Commerce Building
Telephone: (08) 8201 2046
Fax: (08) 8201 2644
Email: John.McDonald@flinders.edu.au

Professor John McDonald was elected a Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society in 1977, a Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences in Australia in 1993 and was appointed to a Personal chair at Flinders University in 1994. He has published widely in statistics and econometrics, economics and economic history, and was for 10 years an Associate Editor of the American Statistical Journal, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.

He holds dual Australian and UK citizenship and studied at the London School of Economics (where he received a BSc (Economics) Honours degree), Southampton University (MSc (Statistics) with Distinction), and Essex University (M.A. (Economics) with Distinction and PhD).

He was also educated at Shirley Park, Surrey, UK, Blackwood and magnificent Kooyonga in South Australia, where he is a member.

John McDonald teaches quantitative methods, statistics, econometrics and organisational architecture at Flinders, and has taught in UK universities (including Essex and Southampton) and the USA (University of California at San Diego and the East-West Center Hawaii).

He has prepared briefings on the Australian economy with the Centre for South Australian Economic Studies, acted as a consultant for corporations, the South Australian Government and Australian Government, and appeared as an expert witness in legal cases.

Professor McDonald’s early research was in statistics and econometrics.

Some publications include:

1. On the insensitivity of the autoregressive moving average representations of some Australian quarterly time series, Econometrica, 44, 1976, 1277-1288.

2. An analysis of the significance of revisions to some quarterly UK national income time series, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 138, 1975, 242-256.

3. An analysis of the residual error in the quarterly national accounts of the UK, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C, Applied Statistics, 22, 1973, 354-368.

4. Consistent estimation of equations with composite moving average disturbance terms (with J. Darroch), Journal of Econometrics, 23 1983, 253-267.

5. On large sample estimation and testing procedures for dynamic equation systems (with J. Darroch), Journal of Econometrics, 1981, 17, 127-130.

6. Modelling demographic relationships: An analysis of forecast functions for Australian births, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 76, 1981, 782-801.

7. A time series approach to forecasting Australian total live-births, Demography, 16, 1979, 575-601.

8. On births time series models and structural interpretations, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 75, 1980, 39-41. 

9. The emergence of counter cyclical US fertility: A reassessment of the evidence, Journal of Macroeconomics, 5, 1983, 421-436.

10. A solution to an estimation problem involving rational expectations, Journal of Monetary Economics, 11, 1983, 381-386. 

11. The sum of finite moving average processes (with J. Darroch and M. Jirina), Journal of Time Series Analysis, 7, 1986, 21-25.

12. A new model for learning curves DARM, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 5, 1987, 329-338.13. On the relationship between the optimal extrapolative and other expectations generating mechanisms, Australian Journal of Statistics, 20, 1978, 126-135.

13. On the relationship between optimal extrapolative and other expectations generating mechanisms, Australian Journal of Statistics, 20, 1978, 126-135.

14. On the use of a priori and data information, International Journal of Forecasting, 2, 1986, 49-52.

15. Errors in economic time series: Some implications for estimation in econometric models, Economic Record, 50, 1974, 258-286.

16. An examination of the residual error in the UK national accounts. Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies, 40, 1972, 193-207.17. An analysis of the statistical discrepancy in the Australian quarterly, national accounts (with P. Monk), Australian Journal of Statistics, 17, 1975, 148-160.

18. Forecasting Australian marriage rates (with P. Morgan), Economic Record, 57, 1981, 47-57.

19. On calculating crude death rates in the Pacific labour trade (with R. Shlomowitz), Journal of the Polynesian Society, 97, 1988, 435-439.

20. Attendances at South Australian football games (with P. Drever), International Review of Sport Sociology, 1981, 16(2), 103-113.21. On the effect of revealed measurement error on the estimation of economic relationships, South African Journal of Economics, 44, 1976, 197-200.

22. A model for optimal ambulance resource allocation, Essex University Discussion Paper 37 and Local Government Operations Research Unit Bulletin, 1971.

23. Can Adelaide's rainfall be forecast? Taminga, 15, 1978, 138-149.

He has researched issues in microeconomics, macroeconomics, welfare economics, growth theory and the education of economics.

1. On relative income shares in the Pasinetti and Samuelson-Modigliani systems (with A. Woodfield), Economic Journal, 89, 1979, 329-335.

2. On the relationship between savings, distribution and inflation (with A. Woodfield), Journal of Development Studies, 14, 1978, 357-365.

3. An econometric test of inflation neutrality using observable variables only, Journal of Macroeconomics, 8, 1986, 193-199.4. Affordability and some welfare aspects of indexation (with P. Morgan and A. Woodfield), Economic Record, 62, 1986, 37-48.

5. Income distribution in the Pasinetti model: An extension (with A. Woodfield), Australian Economic Papers, 20, 1981, 104-14.

6. Income distribution in the Pasinetti model: Reply to Baranzini (with A. Woodfield), Australian Economic Papers, 21, 1982, 207-213.

7. On the relationship between wage inflation and excess demand - new estimates using optimal extrapolative wage expectations, Economic Record, 53, 1977, 490-507.8. Wages and prices in Australia: On the long-run and short-run trade-offs between inflation and employment, Australian Economic Papers, 14, 1975, 154-170.

9. Earnings and award wages in Australia - some econometric considerations, Australian Economic Papers, 15, 1976, 230-239.

10. A comparison of the Carlson-Parkin inflation expectations measures and optimal time series forecasts of inflation (with A. Woodfield), New Zealand Economic Papers, 14, 1980, 108-120.

11. The immediate contributors to Australian inflation (with M. Roux), Australian Accountant, 48, 1978, 490-497.12. Relative income shares in the Pasinetti and Samuelson-Modigliani systems (with A. Woodfield), in J.C. Wood and Woods, R.N. (eds), Paul A Samuelson: Critical Assessments, Routledge Chapman and Hall, London, 1989.

13. Australian stagflation: Diagnosis and prescription (with A. Woodfield), Australian Bulletin of Labour, 3, 1977, 55-65.

14. Muth's concept of rational expectations, Australian Economic Papers, 26, 1987, 265-274.

15. Benefit-induced female sole-parenthood in Australia, 1973-1985 (with Z. Spindler), Australian Economic Papers, 27, 1988, 1-19.

16. The 'sporting equality' argument for imposing labour market restrictions, Sporting Traditions, 4, 1987, 84-90.17. Introductory Microeconomics Students’ Perceptions of the Effectiveness of a Collaborative Learning Method (with A. Gleeson and J. Williams) in Innovation for Student Engagement in Economics, Proceedings of the Eleventh Australasian Teaching Conference, ed S. L. Cheung, Sydney, 2005.18. Extended case study: Collaborative learning tutorials for introductory microeconomics (with A. Gleeson and J. Williams) The Higher Education Academy Economics Network, 2006,1-4.

17. Skills, origins and literacy: A comparison of the 'Bounty' immigrants into New South Wales in 1841 with the convicts resident in the colony (with R. Haines), Australian Economic History Review, 42, 2002, 132-159.

18. Causes of Death and their Time-Patterning over Voyages carrying British Emigrants to South Australia, 1848-1885 (with R. Haines and R. Shlomowitz) Conference in Honour of Stanley L Engerman, Rochester, June 2001.

19. A problem with the decomposition of technical inefficiency into scale and congestion components Management Science, 42, 1996.

20. A most unnatural unemployment rate for Australia Economic Record, 75, 1999, 167-170.

21. The effectiveness of collaborative learning tutorials: The views of introductory microeconomics students (with A. Gleeson and J. Williams), Australasian Journal of Economics Education, forthcoming.

He has also published in economic and social history:

1. Mortality on immigrant voyages to Australia in the nineteenth century (with R. Shlomowitz), Studies in History, 6, 1990, 84-113.

2. Mortality on convict voyages to Australia 1788-1868 (with R. Shlomowitz), Social Science History, 13, 1989, 285-313.

3. Mortality of Indian labour on ocean voyages (with R. Shlomowitz), Studies in History, 6, 1990, 35-66.

4. Passenger fares on sailing vessels to Australia in the nineteenth century (with R. Shlomowitz), Explorations in Economic History, 28, 1991, 1-17.

5. Babies at risk on immigrant voyages to Australia in the nineteenth century (with R. Shlomowitz), Economic History Review, 44, 1991, 86-101.6. The cost of shipping convicts to Australia (with R. Shlomowitz), International Journal of Maritime History, 2, 1990, 1-32.

7. The cost of shipping Indian labour to Mauritius and the West Indies, 1850-1873 (with R. Shlomowitz), International Journal of Maritime History, 3, 1991, 81-99.

8. Mortality on Chinese and Indian voyages to the West Indies and South America 1847-1874 (with R. Shlomowitz) Social and Economic Studies 41, 1992, 203-240.

9. Contract prices for the bulk shipping of passengers in sailing vessels 1816-1914: an overview (with R. Shlomowitz), International Journal of Maritime History 5, 1993, 65-93.10. The origins of south Indian muslim indentured migration to Fiji (with L. Brennan and R. Shlomowitz), Journal Institute of Muslim Minority Affairs, 13, 1993, 402-409.

11. Indian Immigration to Natal (with L. Brennan and R. Shlomowitz), Achieve News, 37, 1995, 16-20.

12. Mortality and migration in the modern world (with L. Brennan and R. Shlomowitz), Variorum, Aldershot, 1996, x + 339 pages.

13. The Great Migration of 1841: Recruitment for New South Wales in British Emigration Fields (with Eric Richards) Populations Studies, 51, 1997, 337-355.14. Workers for Australia: A profile of British and Irish migrants to New South Wales in 1841 (with Eric Richards) Journal of the Australian Population Association,15, 1998, 1-33.

15. The geographic and social origins of Indian indentured labour in Mauritius, Natal, Fiji, Guyana and Jamaica (with L. Brennan and R. Shlomowitz) South Asia, 21, 1998, 39-71.

16. Mortality and Voyage Length in the Middle Passage Revisited (with R. Haines and R. Shlomowitz), Explorations in Economic History, 38, 2001, 503-533.

17. Skills, origins and literacy: A comparison of the ‘Bounty’ immigrants into New South Wales in 1841 with the convicts resident in the colony (with R. Haines), Australian Economic History Review, 42, 2002, 132-159.18. Causes of Death and their Time-Patterning over Voyages carrying British Emigrants to South Australia, 1848-1885 (with R. Haines and R. Shlomowitz) Conference in Honour of Stanley L Engerman, Rochester, June 2001.

Three ongoing research programs are The Domesday economy, 1086, Wellbeing in India (with Lance Brennan and Ralph Shlomowitz) and Assessing efficiency

Research program: The Domesday economy of England, 1086

This program uses the Domesday Survey data of 1086 to reconstruct the late eleventh century economy of England.

• Findings are contrasted with those of social and political historians.
• Economic production functions are estimated.
• DEA frontier methods used to analyse efficiency.
• Efficiency of the main classes of production unit compared.
• Factors associated with efficiency investigated.
• And the influences of feudalism and manorialism on production activity assessed.
• The principles behind the taxation system are examined.
• Factors that resulted in lenient tax assessments discovered.
• And the tax treatment of different classes compared.
• The program has been funded by the Australian Research Council and Flinders University.

Program Director:
Professor John McDonald, Flinders Business School, Flinders University
Email: john.mcdonald@flinders.edu.au

Publications

1. Were the tax assessments of Domesday England artificial? The case of Essex (PDF 1MB) (with G.D. Snooks), Economic History Review, 38, 1985, 352-372.

2. Statistical analysis of Domesday Book (1086) (PDF 1MB) (with G.D. Snooks), Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A. 148, 1985, 147-160.

3. The determinants of manorial income in Domesday England: Evidence from Essex (PDF 1MB) (with G.D. Snooks), Journal of Economic History, 45, 1985, 541-556.

4. Domesday economy: A new approach to Anglo-Norman history (with G.D. Snooks), Clarendon Press, Oxford, 1986.

5. The economics of Domesday England (PDF 657KB) (with G.D. Snooks), in Great Domesday: The 1986 facsimile, Vol. 1-31, Alecto Historical Editions.

6. The suitability of Domesday Book for cliometric analysis (PDF 726KB) (with G.D. Snooks), Economic History Review, 40, 1987, 252-261.

7. A case of mistaken identity: National taxation and local administration in Domesday England (PDF 1MB) (with G.D. Snooks) School of Economics Research Paper, 1990, 8, Flinders University, Adelaide.

8. The taxation system of Domesday England (PDF 681KB) (with G.D. Snooks) School of Economics Research Paper, 1990, 12, Flinders University, Adelaide.

9. Manorial efficiency in Domesday England (PDF 992KB) Journal of Productivity Analysis, 8, 1997, 199-213.

10. Production efficiency in Domesday England, 1086, Routledge, London, 1998, XIV + 233 pages.

11. Domesday economy: An analysis of the English economy early in the second Millennium, National Institute Economic Review, 172, 2000, 105-114.

12.  Using William the Conqueror?s accounting record to assess manorial efficiency (PDF 229KB) . The Accounting Historians Journal, 29, 2002, 173-193.

13. Domesday Economy, Oxford Scholarship Online Edition, (with G. D. Snooks) Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2003.

14. Economy of England at the time of the Norman Conquest (PDF 645KB) , Online Encyclopedia of Economic History (EH.Net Encyclopedia), 2004, 1-8.

15. Using William the Conqueror?s accounting record to assess manorial efficiency (PDF 229KB) , Accounting History, 10, 2005, 125-145.

16. Analysing historical data: A justification of the use of quantitative methods (PDF 142KB) , Accounting History, 11, 2006, 73-84.

17. Tax policy 900 years ago: How fair were the tax assessments of Domesday England? (PDF 1MB) in Flinders Essays in Economics and Economic History, ed Ralph Shlomowitz, Adelaide, Wakefield, 2008.

18. Efficiency in the Domesday Economy, 1086: Evidence from Wiltshire estates (PDF 95KB) , Applied Economics, forthcoming.

Research Program: Wellbeing in India

This program traces Wellbeing in India over the last two centuries.

• Height and other anthropometric measures are used as indicators of wellbeing.
• Socio-economic factors and political events associated with changes in wellbeing are examined.
• Recent research has investigated infant malnutrition, infant feeding practices and teenage pregnancy.
• Current focuses are on civil violence and inequality, and writing a book summarising research to date.
• When the India National Family Health Survey, NFHS-3, is published in late 2007 or early 2008, our published research will be updated.
• The program has been funded by the Australian Research Council and Flinders University.

Joint Program Directors:
Dr Lance Brennan, History, Flinders University
Email: lance.brennan@flinders.edu.au
Professor John McDonald, Flinders Business School, Flinders University
Email: john.mcdonald@flinders.edu.au
Dr Ralph Shlomowitz, Faculty of Social Sciences, Flinders University
Email: ralph.shlomowitz@flinders.edu.au

Publications

1. Trends in the economic well-being of south Indians under British rule: The anthropometric evidence (PDF 2MB) , Explorations in Economic History, 31, 1994, 225-260.
2. The heights and well-being of north Indians under British rule (PDF 1MB) , Social Science History, 18, 1994, 271-307.
3. Secular changes in the heights of Fijians and Indo-Fijians (PDF 744KB) , Journal of the Australian Population Association, 10, 1994, 159-169.
4. Long-term change and sex differences in the heights of Afro-Caribbeans and Indo-Caribbeans (PDF 868KB) , Social and Economic Studies, 44, 1995, 73-93.
5. The variation in Indian height (PDF 564KB) , Man in India, 75, 1995, 327-337.
6. Towards an anthropometric history of Indians under British rule (PDF 3MB) , Research in Economic History, 17, 1997, 185-246.
7. Sex differences in Indian height at home and abroad (PDF 1MB) , Man in India, 77, 1997, 105-118.
8. Sex differences in Indian height at home and abroad (PDF 1MB) , in Classics of Anthropometric History ed. Cuff, T. and Komlos, J. Scripta Mercaturae, St. Katharinen, Germany, 1998.
9. Change in the stature of north Indian?s from British rule to early independence (PDF 1MB) , Jahrbuch fur Wirtschaftsgeschichte 1, 2000, 129-146.
10. The 'unverted U' hypothesis: Evidence from Indian height data (PDF 419KB) , Journal of Income Distribution, 10, 2002, 77-81.
11. Long-term change in Indian health (PDF 2MB) , South Asia: Journal of South Asian Studies, 24, 2003, 51-69.
12. A statistical study of malnutrition: The puzzle of wasting (PDF 2MB) , Demography India, 32, 2003, 161-169.
13. Infant feeding practices and chronic malnutrition in the Indian states of Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh (PDF 142KB) , Economics and Human Biology, 2, 2004, 139-158.
14. A long run decline in final adult female height in India (PDF 971KB) , Man in India, 84, 2004, 8-14.
15. Teenage births and final adult height of mothers (PDF 1MB) , 1998-1999, Journal of Biosocial Sciences, 17, 2005, 185-191.
16. The variation in the height of Indian women, 1998-1999 (PDF 1MB) , Man in India, 85, 2005, 41-48.
17. Caste, inequality and the nation-state: The impact of reservation policies in India, c.1950-2000 (PDF 304KB) , South Asia: Journal of South Asian Studies, 29, 2006, 117-162.

Research Program: Assessing Efficiency

• This program develops and applies methods for assessing productive efficiency.
• DEA frontier methods and regression are used to analyse efficiency.
• Second stage DEA procedures are assessed and developed.
• The procedures are applied to assess the efficiency of production units.
• The program has been funded by the Australian Research Council and Flinders University.

Program Director:

Professor John McDonald, Flinders Business School, Flinders University
Email: john.mcdonald@flinders.edu.au

Publications

1. Using least squares and tobit in second stage DEA efficiency analyses (PDF 188KB) , European Journal of Operational Research, forthcoming.

2. A problem with the decomposition of technical inefficiency into scale and congestion components, Management Science, 42, 1996.

3. Production Efficiency in Domesday England, 1086, Routledge, London, 1998, XIV +233 pages.

4. Manorial efficiency in Domesday England (PDF 992KB) , Journal of Productivity Analysis, 8, 1997, 199-213.

5. Efficiency in the Domesday Economy, 1086: Evidence from Wiltshire estates (PDF 95KB) , Applied Economics, forthcoming.

6. Allowing for different frontier and sub-frontier relationships in second stage DEA efficiency analyses.

7. Using a DEA tax frontier to discover tax policy almost 1,000 years ago.